The assumptions we don't know we're making
Many disruptions are not caused by a lack of planning.
They are caused by assumptions that were never tested.
We assume people will receive important information.
We assume transport networks will remain available.
We assume telecommunications will continue to function.
We assume key staff will be available.
We assume someone else is supporting vulnerable residents.
Most of the time, these assumptions are reasonable.
Until they are not.
Assumptions often remain invisible
One of the challenges of preparedness is that assumptions rarely appear on organisational charts, risk registers or project plans. Instead, they sit beneath the surface, quietly shaping everyday decisions, processes and relationships.
Because systems usually function as expected, assumptions can remain invisible for years. The longer they go unchallenged, the more likely they are to be accepted as fact.
But assumptions are not facts.
They are simply beliefs about how people, organisations, services and systems are expected to behave.
Disruption has a way of revealing the difference.
When assumptions become vulnerabilities
Many vulnerabilities emerge when reality no longer matches what was expected.
A council may assume residents know where to seek assistance.
A health service may assume another organisation is supporting a particular group.
A community organisation may assume referral pathways will remain available.
A service provider may assume transport networks will continue operating.
Each of these assumptions appears reasonable when viewed on its own.
The challenge arises when several assumptions prove incorrect at the same time.
Preparedness problems are often not the result of a single failure. They emerge when multiple assumptions interact, exposing gaps that no one organisation had previously recognised.
Assumptions are part of complex systems
In complex systems, organisations depend on many people, services and relationships beyond their direct control.
A resident may rely on electricity, telecommunications, transport, healthcare, community support and family networks. Each appears independent, yet they are deeply connected.
The same is true for organisations.
A service may depend on suppliers, partner organisations, information systems, workforce availability, community relationships and funding arrangements.
During normal operations these dependencies often go unnoticed.
Disruption makes them visible.
Preparedness improves when organisations understand these connections before they are tested.
The assumption gap
One of the most valuable preparedness questions is surprisingly simple:
What are we assuming about one another?
Organisations often work together through a combination of formal partnerships and informal relationships. Over time, assumptions naturally develop about who shares information, who supports particular communities and who takes responsibility when circumstances change.
The difficulty is that these assumptions are rarely discussed explicitly.
One organisation assumes information is being shared.
Another assumes it will be requested.
One organisation assumes vulnerable residents are being contacted.
Another assumes they have already sought help.
One organisation assumes a service has sufficient capacity.
Another assumes demand remains manageable.
These gaps can remain hidden for years before suddenly becoming visible during disruption.
Preparedness as assumption testing
Preparedness is often described as planning for future events.
Another way to think about it is assumption testing.
Rather than asking only:
"What disruption might occur?"
we might also ask:
"What assumptions are we making today?"
This shifts the conversation from prediction to understanding.
Questions such as these often reveal valuable insights:
What are we relying on?
Who are we depending on?
What happens if this changes?
What happens if demand increases?
What happens if resources become unavailable?
What alternatives exist?
Notice that none of these questions depend on predicting a particular disruption. They remain valuable regardless of whether the challenge is a flood, cyber attack, workforce shortage or something entirely unforeseen.
Why scenarios are so valuable
This is one reason scenario-based learning, simulations and exercises are such powerful preparedness tools.
Their greatest value is not simply testing plans.
It is exposing assumptions.
A realistic scenario may reveal dependencies that were previously unnoticed, communication pathways that are unclear, resource constraints, coordination challenges or different expectations between organisations.
These discoveries are often more valuable than confirming that a procedure exists.
The goal is not to prove everything will work exactly as planned.
The goal is to learn where assumptions may need to be reconsidered before they become vulnerabilities.
Curiosity is a preparedness capability
Preparedness is often associated with certainty.
In practice, it may begin with curiosity.
Curiosity encourages organisations to ask:
What do we know?
What do we think we know?
What are we assuming?
What might we be overlooking?
These questions do not always produce comfortable answers.
They do, however, create opportunities to strengthen preparedness before disruption occurs.
Making the invisible visible
Disruption has a way of making assumptions visible.
The difficulty is that by the time this happens, organisations are often managing the consequences rather than exploring the causes.
Preparedness provides an opportunity to make those assumptions visible beforehand.
Not every assumption will prove incorrect.
Not every vulnerability can be eliminated.
But organisations that regularly question their assumptions are often better positioned to understand change, adapt as circumstances evolve and make better decisions when uncertainty arises.
Because resilience is rarely determined solely by the plans we create.
It is also shaped by the assumptions we are willing to question before disruption occurs.