Foundations of Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity draws on ideas from systems thinking, complexity, organisational learning, resilience and adaptive governance.

These foundations help explain how people, organisations and communities understand change, make decisions, learn and adapt as conditions evolve.

How systems behave

  • Explains why many situations are dynamic, nonlinear and difficult to predict.

    Adaptive capacity recognises that planning alone is insufficient and organisations must continually adjust as conditions evolve.

    Questions to begin with

    • What factors are influencing this situation?

    • Where might cause and effect be less straightforward than they appear?

    • What might we need to keep learning as the situation change?

  • Explains how organisations and communities are made up of many connected people, groups and systems that constantly influence and respond to one another. This can create changes and outcomes that are difficult to predict.

    Adaptive capacity helps people respond, learn and adjust as new situations and patterns emerge.

    Questions to begin with

    • Who is adapting to whom or what?

    • How are local actions changing the wider system?

    • What conditions might support useful adaptation?

  • Helps us see connections, relationships and patterns instead of treating every problem as separate.

    Adaptive capacity depends on understanding the wider system and how changes in one part may affect others.

    Questions to begin with

    • What is connected to this issue?

    • What might we miss by looking at it in isolation?

    • Who or what else could be affected?

  • Explains why new behaviours, opportunities or problems can appear without anyone planning them.

    Adaptive capacity includes recognising and responding to these emerging patterns.

    Questions to begin with

    • What new pattern is beginning to appear?

    • What has emerged that nobody deliberately planned?

    • Should we support, redirect or interrupt it?

  • Shows that people often organise themselves and find solutions without waiting for central direction.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when people have the trust, connections and freedom to respond locally.

    Questions to begin with

    • Where are people already organising themselves?

    • What local initiative could be enabled rather than controlled?

    • What boundaries or support would help?

  • Reminds us that organisations and communities rely on one another - changes in one place can affect others.

    Adaptive capacity depends on understanding these connections and being able to coordinate across them.

    Questions to begin with

    • Who or what do we depend on?

    • Who depends on us?

    • What could happen if one important connection failed?

  • Describes how systems develop, become established, experience disruption and then reorganise.

    Adaptive capacity helps organisations recover, learn and evolve through these cycles.

    Questions to begin with

    • Are we growing, stabilising, declining or reorganising?

    • What should be retained through this transition?

    • What might need to be released or redesigned?

  • Explains that sometimes gradual improvement is not enough and more fundamental change is needed when existing ways no longer fit new conditions.

    Adaptive capacity includes recognising when deeper change is necessary and being able to make that transition.

    Questions to begin with

    • Is improving the current approach still enough?

    • What may need to change fundamentally?

    • What would a genuinely different system look like?

  • Helps distinguish between adjusting what already exists and creating something fundamentally different when existing approaches no longer work.

    Adaptive capacity helps people recognise how much change is needed - from incremental adjustment through to transformation.

    Questions to begin with

    • Can the current system still meet its purpose?

    • Are we adjusting around the edges or changing the underlying model?

    • What evidence would indicate that transformation is needed?

  • Shows that some changes have much greater influence than others.

    Adaptive capacity includes identifying where small actions can produce meaningful improvements.

    Questions to begin with

    • Where could a small change have a large effect?

    • Are we addressing symptoms or underlying structures?

    • Which assumption, rule or relationship most shapes the system?

How people think and decide

  • Helps people make sense of confusing or changing situations so they can decide what to do, even when they do not have all the answers.

    Adaptive capacity depends on being able to make enough sense of changing conditions to act and adjust as understanding develops.

    Questions to begin with

    • What do we think is happening?

    • What evidence supports or challenges that interpretation?

    • What other explanations are possible?

  • Focuses on recognising what is happening now, understanding why it matters and anticipating what may happen next.

    Adaptive capacity depends on noticing important changes early enough to respond effectively.

    Questions to begin with

    • What is happening now?

    • What does it mean for us?

    • What may happen next?

  • Helps different people and organisations develop a common understanding of what is happening so they can coordinate their actions.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when people can combine information, align their understanding and adapt together.

    Questions to begin with

    • Do we have the same understanding of the situation?

    • Where do our views differ?

    • What information needs to be shared now?

  • Explains how people can make good decisions even when information is incomplete, conflicting or constantly changing.

    Adaptive capacity includes being able to act without waiting for certainty and adjust decisions as new information emerges.

    Questions to begin with

    • What do we know, and what remains uncertain?

    • What decision is needed despite incomplete information?

    • How could we adjust if our assumptions prove wrong?

  • Shows how our assumptions shape what we notice, how we interpret situations and the decisions we make.

    Adaptive capacity involves recognising and questioning these assumptions when they no longer fit changing conditions.

    Questions to begin with

    • What assumptions are shaping our view?

    • What are we taking for granted?

    • How might someone with a different perspective interpret this?

  • Encourages people to consider different possible futures instead of assuming tomorrow will look like today.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened by anticipating change, considering alternatives and remaining prepared for different possibilities.

    Questions to begin with

    • What different futures are possible?

    • What changes could reshape the current direction?

    • What would we do differently if the future did not resemble the past?

  • Uses plausible future situations to test assumptions, explore uncertainty and prepare for different possibilities before they occur.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened by considering how we might respond across a range of changing conditions rather than relying on one expected future.

    Questions to begin with

    • What plausible futures should we prepare for?

    • Which assumptions would each scenario challenge?

    • What capabilities would help across several scenarios?

  • Helps people recognise early signs of change and think ahead before problems become crises.

    Adaptive capacity includes noticing what may be developing and acting early enough to preserve options and adjust course.

    Questions to begin with

    • What early signs of change are we noticing?

    • What could become important later?

    • What action now could preserve future options?

  • Encourages people and organisations to question their own assumptions, decisions and ways of working so they can continue improving.

    Adaptive capacity grows when people can question their own thinking and change their approach as they learn.

    Questions to begin with

    • How might we be contributing to the problem?

    • What assumptions or habits should we examine?

    • What would we change after reflecting on our own role?

  • Provides a way of understanding situations shaped by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, where traditional approaches may no longer be enough.

    Adaptive capacity helps people adjust how they think and respond according to the conditions they face.

    Questions to begin with

    • Which aspect is most challenging: volatility, uncertainty, complexity or ambiguity?

    • What approach would suit that condition?

    • Where might we be seeking certainty that is unavailable?

  • Encourages organisations to observe what is happening, respond thoughtfully and adjust as situations continue to evolve.

    Adaptive capacity is expressed through this ongoing ability to notice, act, learn and adapt rather than relying solely on prediction and control.

    Questions to begin with

    • What are we noticing?

    • What is the smallest useful response we can make?

    • What will tell us whether to continue, change or stop?

How organisations function

  • Explains how organisations turn experience into better decisions, improved systems and stronger future performance.

    Adaptive capacity grows when learning leads to changes in assumptions, behaviours and practice rather than lessons simply being identified.

    Questions to begin with

    • What have we learned from recent experience?

    • Where has that learning been embedded?

    • Are we changing practice or only documenting lessons?

  • Encourages organisations to question not only what they do, but also the assumptions and beliefs behind how they work.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when organisations can rethink underlying assumptions rather than simply improving existing responses.

    Questions to begin with

    • Are we only correcting the action, or questioning the thinking behind it?

    • What rule or assumption produced this outcome?

    • Does our underlying approach still make sense?

  • Treats decisions as opportunities to learn, helping organisations improve by testing ideas, monitoring results and adjusting over time.

    Adaptive capacity develops through this ongoing cycle of action, learning and adjustment as conditions and understanding change.

    Questions to begin with

    • What could we test on a small scale?

    • What evidence would show whether it is working?

    • How and when will we adjust the approach?

  • Views preparedness as building the people, relationships and capabilities needed to respond effectively - not just writing plans.

    Adaptive capacity strengthens preparedness by enabling people to respond when circumstances differ from what was anticipated or planned.

    Questions to begin with

    • What must people be able to do when conditions change?

    • Which relationships need to exist beforehand?

    • Have we practised rather than only planned?

  • Focuses on what people and organisations are actually able to do, rather than simply what resources or plans they have.

    Adaptive capacity depends on having the real capability to respond, adjust and continue functioning as conditions change.

    Questions to begin with

    • What are we genuinely able to do?

    • Where is capability concentrated or missing?

    • What would enable people to act effectively?

  • Recognises that capability develops over time through practice, learning and continuous improvement rather than appearing all at once.

    Adaptive capacity can similarly be strengthened progressively as adaptive behaviours and capabilities become more established across an organisation.

    Questions to begin with

    • What level of capability do we currently have?

    • What would the next stage look like?

    • What practice or support would help us progress?

  • Encourages organisations to keep learning from everyday work, change and disruption rather than only after major events.

    Adaptive capacity grows when organisations continually notice what is changing, learn from experience and adjust before problems become larger.

    Questions to begin with

    • How do we learn during normal work?

    • What signals are we using to improve?

    • How regularly do we revisit what we think we know?

  • Supports trying small, manageable changes to learn what works before making larger commitments.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when organisations can test, learn and adjust rather than needing to know the right answer in advance.

    Questions to begin with

    • What could we test safely?

    • What are we trying to learn?

    • What result would lead us to expand, adapt or stop the experiment?

  • Helps people align decisions, information, resources and actions so different parts of a system work together effectively.

    Adaptive capacity depends on being able to coordinate and realign these efforts as circumstances, priorities and needs change.

    Questions to begin with

    • Who needs to do what, and when?

    • Where could actions conflict or be duplicated?

    • What information is needed to keep efforts aligned?

  • Explores how organisations operating in high-risk environments remain safe by staying alert, learning continuously and adapting early.

    These practices strengthen adaptive capacity by helping organisations detect change and adjust before emerging problems escalate.

    Questions to begin with

    • What small warning signs might we be overlooking?

    • How easy is it for concerns to reach decision-makers?

    • Are we relying too heavily on past success?

  • Explains how people's thinking, communication, workload and teamwork influence performance during change and disruption.

    Adaptive capacity depends partly on creating conditions that enable people to notice, decide, coordinate and adjust effectively during change and disruption.

    Questions to begin with

    • How are workload, fatigue or stress affecting performance?

    • Is important information easy to understand and use?

    • Does the system support people to do the right thing?

  • Shows that groups often make better decisions than individuals when they combine different knowledge, experience and perspectives.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when organisations can draw on distributed knowledge rather than relying on the perspective or expertise of only a few people.

    Questions to begin with

    • Whose knowledge is needed?

    • Are different perspectives being genuinely combined?

    • What might the group see that no individual can see alone?

  • Creates an environment where people feel safe to ask questions, raise concerns and share ideas, making learning and adaptation easier.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when important information can surface, different perspectives can be heard and people can learn openly from uncertainty and mistakes.

    Questions to begin with

    • Can people raise concerns without fear?

    • Whose voice is least likely to be heard?

    • How do leaders respond when someone questions the current approach?

How societies govern and respond collectively

  • Explores how people, organisations and communities continue functioning, recover from disruption and adapt to changing conditions over time.

    Adaptive capacity is a key part of resilience because it enables systems to adjust, learn and evolve rather than simply withstand disruption or return to previous conditions.

    Questions to begin with

    • What needs to continue during disruption?

    • What enables recovery?

    • How could the system emerge stronger or better adapted?

  • Recognises that people, communities and the natural environment are closely connected, so adapting well means understanding both together.

    Adaptive capacity depends on understanding these relationships and being able to adjust as social and environmental conditions change together.

    Questions to begin with

    • How do social and environmental conditions affect one another?

    • Who benefits or bears the cost of change?

    • What long-term ecological limits must be considered?

  • Explores how governments, organisations and communities can work together flexibly as conditions and challenges change.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when governance enables learning, shared decision-making and adjustment rather than relying only on fixed structures and predetermined responses.

    Questions to begin with

    • Are current decision arrangements flexible enough?

    • Who needs to participate as conditions change?

    • How can governance support learning and adjustment?

  • Shows that complex challenges are often better managed when many organisations share responsibility rather than relying on one central authority.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when different actors can respond at appropriate levels while sharing knowledge, coordinating and learning across the wider system.

    Questions to begin with

    • Where does decision-making currently sit?

    • Which decisions are best made locally or jointly?

    • How can multiple centres of action remain connected?

  • Explains how relationships between people and organisations influence how information, resources and support move through a system.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened by networks that enable people to access knowledge, mobilise resources, coordinate and respond as circumstances change.

    Questions to begin with

    • Who is connected to whom?

    • Where are the gaps, bottlenecks or isolated groups?

    • Which relationships are most important during disruption?

  • Highlights the importance of trust, relationships and reciprocity in helping people work together during change and disruption.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when these relationships already exist and can be drawn upon during change, uncertainty or disruption.

    Questions to begin with

    • Where is trust strong or weak?

    • Who can call on whom for support?

    • How are relationships maintained before they are urgently needed?

  • Brings together different people, organisations and perspectives to solve problems that no one can solve alone.

    Adaptive capacity is strengthened when people can combine their capabilities, learn together and develop shared responses as circumstances change.

    Questions to begin with

    • What challenge requires a shared response?

    • What can each participant contribute?

    • Are power, responsibility and benefits being shared fairly?

  • Shifts attention from what might happen to understanding who or what is most susceptible to disruption and why.

    Adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerability by strengthening the ability of people, communities and systems to anticipate, respond to and adjust to changing conditions.

    Questions to begin with

    • Who or what is most likely to be affected?

    • What conditions make them more vulnerable?

    • What existing strengths could reduce that vulnerability?

  • Explains vulnerability by considering what is exposed to change, how sensitive it is and how well it can adapt.

    Adaptive capacity is the part that reflects the ability to adjust, cope, learn and respond, helping reduce the impacts of exposure and sensitivity.

    Questions to begin with

    • What is exposed to the change or hazard?

    • How strongly could it be affected?

    • What capacity exists to adjust, cope or recover?

From ideas to practice

These foundations inform how I work with organisations to build shared understanding, strengthen capability, test assumptions and learn and adapt over time.

Explore my approach