Disruption Series (8 of 8) - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Preparedness Is About Better Decisions, Not Perfect Ones
Every organisation makes decisions. Most are straightforward. Others are more complex.
Occasionally, decisions must be made when information is incomplete, circumstances are changing, and the consequences are uncertain.
These are the moments when preparedness matters most. Preparedness cannot eliminate uncertainty. But it can help organisations make better decisions within it.
There is rarely a perfect decision
One of the common assumptions about decision-making is that there is a single correct answer waiting to be discovered. In complex situations, this is rarely the case.
Decision-makers often face competing priorities.
Limited information.
Time pressure.
Conflicting perspectives.
Changing conditions.
New information continues to emerge long after the first decision has been made.
Rather than searching for perfect decisions, organisations increasingly need the ability to make informed decisions, adjust them as circumstances evolve, and continue learning throughout the process.
Uncertainty is not the same as ignorance
Uncertainty does not necessarily mean people lack information. Often, organisations possess large amounts of information. The challenge is that:
some information is incomplete
some is contradictory
some is distributed across different organisations
some has yet to emerge
Decision-making therefore becomes less about finding more information and more about making sense of what is already known while remaining open to new understanding.
Every organisation sees a different part of the picture
Earlier in this series, I suggested that communities experience the whole system, while organisations often experience only part of it. The same is true when decisions need to be made.
A council may understand local infrastructure.
Health services understand community health needs.
Community organisations understand vulnerable populations.
Emergency services understand operational response.
Businesses understand supply chains.
Each perspective is valuable. Each contributes something different. No single organisation holds the complete picture. Better decisions often emerge when these perspectives are brought together.
Assumptions shape every decision
Many decisions are influenced by assumptions that remain invisible until they are questioned.
We assume communication systems will continue operating.
We assume staff will be available.
We assume services will function as expected.
We assume another organisation understands the situation in the same way we do.
Most assumptions remain unnoticed because they usually prove correct. Disruption has a way of exposing those that do not. Preparedness therefore includes creating opportunities to identify assumptions before they are tested.
Sometimes the most valuable question is simply:
"What assumptions are we making?"
Preparedness creates better conditions for decision-making
Preparedness is sometimes described as creating plans. I think it is more accurate to describe it as creating conditions. Conditions that support:
informed decisions
collaboration
shared understanding
flexibility
learning
adaptation
These conditions do not guarantee better outcomes. But they significantly improve an organisation's ability to respond thoughtfully as situations evolve.
Decision-making is rarely an individual activity
Leadership is often associated with making decisions. In reality, good decisions frequently emerge through conversation.
People contribute different experiences.
Different expertise.
Different perspectives.
Different concerns.
This diversity can sometimes slow decision-making. It can also improve it.
One of the benefits of collaborative preparedness activities is that organisations develop a shared understanding before difficult decisions become necessary. That shared understanding often enables faster and more informed decisions during disruption.
Decisions are only the beginning
Preparedness is not simply about making an initial decision. It is also about recognising when circumstances have changed. Good decision-makers continue asking:
What has changed?
What are we learning?
What assumptions should we revisit?
What new information has emerged?
Does our response still make sense?
Preparedness supports this ongoing process of learning and adaptation.
Better questions often lead to better decisions
One lesson has become increasingly clear throughout my work. Preparedness is rarely about having all the answers. It is about asking better questions. Questions such as:
What does the wider system look like?
Who else sees part of this picture?
What assumptions are influencing our thinking?
Who may be affected by this decision?
What dependencies should we consider?
What might happen next?
These questions encourage organisations to explore complexity rather than oversimplify it.
Decision-making is a capability
Like communication, collaboration or leadership, decision-making can be strengthened. It develops through experience.
Reflection.
Discussion.
Scenario-based learning.
Systems thinking.
Opportunities to practise making decisions before disruption occurs. The goal is not to predict every future situation. It is to build the confidence and capability to make informed decisions when certainty is impossible.
Looking ahead
If preparedness helps organisations make better decisions, how do those capabilities actually develop?
They are rarely built through reading plans alone.
Instead, they grow through learning.
Through conversation.
Through practice.
Through reflection.
Preparedness is not something organisations complete. It is something they continually develop.